Tadej Pogačar enters Milan-San Remo as one of the favorites to win, but the world champion’s chances of securing victory in the prestigious race are far from certain. While Pogačar has claimed multiple major titles, including Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Giro d’Italia, the Tour de France, the World Championships, and Il Lombardia, there remains one glaring omission from his palmarès: Milan-San Remo.
The Slovenian has made significant strides in his cycling career, yet Milan-San Remo remains elusive. Despite his remarkable success in various races, including the Grand Tours, he has yet to conquer the Monument that has proven challenging for riders of all disciplines. Pogačar is still far from the “domain” of cycling greatness, and as of now, there’s no reason for him to lament his incomplete list of victories.
Milan-San Remo, often referred to as the “Classicissima,” is a unique race. While it is the longest WorldTour event of the season, its relatively forgiving course has earned it a reputation for being the easiest race to finish but the hardest to win. With a neutralized zone stretching over 300 kilometers, the race often ends in a reduced bunch sprint or sees a lone rider time their attack perfectly. The absence of any particularly grueling climbs or key obstacles means that the event can favor a range of riders, making it difficult for even the strongest to dominate.
Pogačar’s history in Milan-San Remo is mixed. In 2020, during his breakout year, he finished 12th, just two seconds behind the leading pair of Julian Alaphilippe and Wout van Aert. In 2022, he placed 5th, trailing solo winner Matej Mohorič. The following year, he finished one place higher, but he was unable to challenge Mathieu van der Poel after the latter’s decisive move on the Poggio descent. Despite his impressive form in 2023, Pogačar was unable to out-sprint Michael Matthews and eventual winner Jasper Philipsen on the final straight.
The challenge Pogačar faces at Milan-San Remo lies in the nature of the race itself. With key climbs like Capo Mele, Capo Cervo, Capo Berta, the Cipressa, and the Poggio, the course doesn’t feature enough elevation or difficulty to allow Pogačar to break away from a large group. His past victories, such as Strade Bianche, came from attacking a reduced bunch, but Milan-San Remo’s wide-open, tactical nature may not give him the same opportunities.
To complicate matters further, Pogačar’s every move will be heavily scrutinized. As the most-watched rider in the peloton, his tactics are likely to be countered by competitors and team strategies. He could potentially capitalize on someone else’s move, but that depends on being in the right place at the right time — an unpredictable element in such a high-stakes race.
Adding to Pogačar’s concerns are the performances of other contenders. Mads Pedersen’s strong showing at Paris-Nice and Filippo Ganna’s podium finish at Tirreno-Adriatico are noteworthy. Both riders, known for their explosive finishing power, could be major threats, and their resilience in these races suggests they will be formidable opponents at Milan-San Remo.
For Pogačar to succeed, UAE Team Emirates-XRG must make the race as challenging as possible. The team’s support riders, including Vegard Stake Laengen, Brandon McNulty, Jhonatan Narváez, Domen Novak, Nils Politt, and Tim Wellens, will need to work tirelessly to break up the pack and give Pogačar a chance. However, even with this support, last year’s race showed that efforts to thin the field may not be enough to overcome rivals like Philipsen.
One factor that could tilt the race in Pogačar’s favor is the weather. Forecasts predict rain in Liguria, and any additional difficulty could provide the world champion with an opportunity to outlast the competition. However, given the conditions, it might be wise for riders to avoid wearing white shorts on race day.
Ultimately, Pogačar possesses the skill and talent to win Milan-San Remo, but the outcome will depend on a variety of factors, including race dynamics and luck. For cycling fans, the uncertainty is what makes the race so captivating, and Pogačar’s pursuit of victory remains one of the sport’s most intriguing narratives.
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