Northern California is set to experience its first significant winter swell of the season, as a powerful west-northwest storm system moves into the region. This marks the arrival of a long-anticipated shift in ocean conditions, signaling the official start of the winter surf season.
The swell, expected to peak today, November 12, could bring waves as high as 10 to 15 feet, according to forecasts. Buoy readings indicate a strong west-northwest swell with periods of up to 15 seconds, which forecasters say could be enough to challenge even experienced surfers.
Mavericks, the world-famous big wave spot off the coast of Half Moon Bay, is expected to come alive after a quiet summer. The storm’s impact will be most noticeable north of Point Conception, where wave heights will vary depending on local conditions and the size of surfboards used.
Chris Borg, Surfline’s senior forecaster, noted in a recent North Pacific Overview that the swell is being driven by a low-pressure system moving across the Alaskan Gulf. This system is expected to generate strong northwesterly waves, with conditions peaking by the afternoon on Tuesday. “Most openly exposed beaches will be overwhelmed as the swell peaks,” Borg said, emphasizing that the storm’s full impact will be felt by the afternoon. He recommends that surfers head to more sheltered spots along the Central Coast for safer conditions.
Winds are forecast to be light in the morning, with slightly stronger onshore winds developing later in the day. The second phase of the swell, expected to hit Thursday, will bring an even larger wave set, though it will taper off by Friday.
For big wave enthusiasts, the coming days offer a rare opportunity to surf some of the largest waves of the year. Surfline predicts 8-12 foot faces at Mavericks in the morning, with potential for waves to grow to 10-15 feet later in the day as the tide drops. Some surfers may even see waves that exceed those predictions.
In preparation for the powerful conditions, the National Weather Service has issued a high surf advisory for the Bay Area coastline. The advisory, in effect from 6 a.m. Tuesday to 6 a.m. Wednesday, warns of dangerous surf conditions, particularly for those on the beaches. The swell is expected to produce high surf and strong rip currents, which could make for hazardous beach conditions.
While this swell isn’t expected to bring the kind of catastrophic weather seen in recent years, including atmospheric river events that caused flooding and pier damage, surfers and beachgoers are urged to exercise caution and respect the power of the ocean.
As the winter surf season kicks off, surfers across Northern California are preparing to make the most of this long-awaited swell, but as always, knowing one’s limits is key to staying safe in the surf.
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